Predictions: What Will Win the Best Musical and Best Play Tony Awards in 2023?

Voting for the 2023 Tony Awards closes today, and everyone is wondering who is going to win. Our critics have already registered their predictions for the acting categories, directors, score and book, and revivals. In this final batch of predictions, they offer their thoughts on the all-important Play and Musical categories. It’s a tough one this year:  

Best Play 

THE NOMINEES:
Ain’t No Mo’
Between Riverside and Crazy
Cost of Living
Fat Ham
Leopoldstadt 

Zachary Stewart
Will win: Leopoldstadt
Should win: Between Riverside and Crazy  

Leopoldstadt is a remarkable accomplishment from one of our greatest living playwrights. I suspect voters will want to recognize an ambitious play employing 24 actors (one that has been running since the fall). But Between Riverside and Crazy is a better, more challenging play, that leaves the audience swimming in deep ambiguity. I’m looking forward to the revival in 20 years.   

Hayley Levitt 
Will win: Leopoldstadt
Should win: Ain’t No Mo’ 

Leopoldstadt is beautiful and heartbreaking in that cerebral way only Tom Stoppard can pull off, but Jordan E. Cooper’s Ain’t No Mo’ was daring and shocking and has stuck with me all season long. It was only on Broadway for a short time, but I hope Cooper will give us more to see.   

Pete Hempstead
Will win: Leopoldstadt
Should win: Between Riverside and Crazy or Ain’t No Mo’ 

There’s little doubt in my mind that Leopoldstadt will win Best Play. It’s a magisterial work that has been given a lush and at times harrowing production. I was torn between Between Riverside and Crazy (a provocative and highly polished work) and Ain’t No Mo’ (a challenging, entertaining, and altogether unique play). It would be a marvelous coup if Ain’t No Mo’ won. That seems highly unlikely, but I’m very pleased it was recognized. 

David Gordon
Will Win: Leopoldstadt
Should Win: Leopoldstadt 

What a year it was for plays. Every title in this category is more than deserving of taking home the trophy, but Tom Stoppard’s name is all but engraved for the heartbreaking capstone to his illustrious career. Stephen Adly Guirgis, James Ijames, and Martyna Majok will have to content themselves with their Pulitzers.  

Best Musical  

THE NOMINEES:
& Juliet
Kimberly Akimbo
New York, New York
Shucked
Some Like It Hot 

Zachary Stewart
Will win: Some Like It Hot
Should win: Some Like It Hot 

Several recent winners of this category (Dear Evan Hansen, The Band’s Visit, Hadestown, A Strange Loop) have been thoughtful chamber musicals that originated off-Broadway. That would seem to bode well for Kimberly Akimbo, which has won every significant off-Broadway award there is. But I think 2023 will be the year voters break with this pattern and elect a Best Musical steeped in the tradition of old-fashioned showmanship. Some Like It Hot looks and sounds like a Broadway musical, and it could definitely use the box office boost this award promises.  

Hayley Levitt 
Will win: Kimberly Akimbo
Should win: Kimberly Akimbo   

I’m putting all my chips in on Kimberly Akimbo. My coworker above makes some fair points, but I think the chamber musical will once again emerge victorious. It has the special sauce that touches people’s hearts. 

Pete Hempstead 
Will win: Some Like It Hot
Should win: Some Like It Hot   

From the moment I saw Some Like It Hot, I was convinced that this was the one to beat. Despite my fondness for Shucked, that remains the case. Some Like It Hot is that big Broadway musical of yesteryear brought into today’s topsy-turvy world. It’s as much nostalgia as it is a commentary on our times with a score and dance numbers to send you out of the theater energized and smiling. What more could you ask? 

David Gordon
Will win: Shucked
Should win: Kimberly Akimbo 

I don’t think Shucked is that great a musical (it’s a perfectly enjoyable one, which would be better shorter), but I think it’s the genuine crowd pleaser of the season, and something that will translate extremely well when it hits the road. That’s why I think it’s going to win over worthier titles like Kimberly Akimbo, Some Like It Hot, and & Juliet.