Predictions: Which Actors in Musicals Are Going to Win a Tony in 2023?

Voting is open for the 2023 Tony Awards, and the winners will be announced in a live televised ceremony on Sunday, June 11. TheaterMania’s critics have some predictions, which we will be rolling out all week — starting with the four musical acting categories: 

Best Performance by an Actor in a Featured Role in a Musical 

THE NOMINEES
Kevin Cahoon, Shucked
Justin Cooley, Kimberly Akimbo
Kevin Del Aguila, Some Like It Hot
Jordan Donica, Lerner & Loewe’s Camelot
Alex Newell, Shucked 

Zachary Stewart
Will win: Alex Newell
Should win: Alex Newell 

After being outrageously snubbed in 2018 for his performance in Once on This Island, Newell has accumulated a large amount of what I call “Whoopi Goldberg credit” (Goldberg famously won the Oscar in 1991 for her performance in Ghost after losing in 1986 for The Color Purple). It’s time to cash in with this performance, which is the highlight of Shucked and heralds a career on the rise.   

Hayley Levitt
Will win: Alex Newell
Should win: Alex Newell 

Anyone who can get a mid-show standing ovation in two consecutive Broadway musicals is required by law to collect a Tony Award. Shucked is Newell’s Once on This Island revenge dress. 

Pete Hempstead
Will win: Alex Newell
Should win: Alex Newell 

Every nominee on this list brought something incredible to their show, but Alex Newell is the only one who brought the house down on a regular in a truly standout performance. It’s time to recognize this Broadway star once and for all. 

David Gordon
Will win: Justin Cooley
Should win: Kevin Del Aguila 

There are a couple of “it’s nice just to be nominated” in this category, namely Kevin Cahoon and Jordan Donica. Meanwhile, Alex Newell sings the hell out of their big song in Shucked, but it’s one song. Kevin Del Aguila is a reliable Broadway character actor who fills his role with his delightful ideocracies, but the nerdy charm of Justin Cooley — and his chemistry with leading Victoria Clark — will carry him over the finish line. 

Best Performance by an Actress in a Featured Role in a Musical 

THE NOMINEES
Julia Lester, Into the Woods
Ruthie Ann Miles, Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
Bonnie Milligan, Kimberly Akimbo
NaTasha Yvette Williams, Some Like It Hot
Betsy Wolfe, & Juliet 

Zachary Stewart
Will win: Bonnie Milligan
Should win: Bonnie Milligan 

Like Newell, Milligan has also been overlooked by nominators in the past (for Head Over Heels). Not this year. Milligan steals every scene she’s in, and it’s about time Tony voters recognize it. That gives her the edge in a very crowded field.

Hayley Levitt
Will win: Bonnie Milligan
Should win: Bonnie Milligan 

Continuing the theme of snubbed Broadway belters — the last time Milligan was eligible for a Tony nomination with the Go-Go’s musical Head Over Heels, the show was long closed and sadly forgotten. This time her stellar performance has collided with the hit of the season, which should get her the trophy she deserves. 

Pete Hempstead
Will win: Bonnie Milligan
Should win: Julia Lester 

After seeing Into the Woods, I became a complete Julia Lester fan. No one I’ve seen has ever performed Little Red with her perfect balance of sass and panache. But the show opened and closed a while ago, and her wonderful performance may have dimmed in the minds of some voters. If that’s the case, Bonnie Milligan seems like a shoo-in.  

David Gordon
Will win: Bonnie Milligan
Should win: Bonnie Milligan 

The scenes that Bonnie Milligan steals in Kimberly Akimbo have been talked about since the musical ran at the Atlantic in 2021, and she steals them even better on Broadway. 

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Musical 

THE NOMINEES
Christian Borle, Some Like It Hot
J. Harrison Ghee, Some Like It Hot
Josh Groban, Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
Brian d’Arcy James, Into the Woods
Ben Platt, Parade
Colton Ryan, New York, New York 

Zachary Stewart
Will win: J. Harrison Ghee
Should win: J. Harrison Ghee 

Partisans in the Ben Platt-Josh Groban rivalry are bound to be disappointed when neither of them wins in this rematch. It’s J. Harrison Ghee’s year, and this will be a well-deserved win.   

Hayley Levitt
Will win: J. Harrison Ghee
Should win: Ben Platt 

Harrison Ghee is phenomenal as Jerry/Daphne in Some Like It Hot and I left the Shubert Theatre thinking they had the Tony in the bag. Then I saw Parade. Platt may not need another Tony to add to his collection, but his performance is the one I can’t stop thinking about (or listening to).  

Pete Hempstead
Will win: Josh Groban 
Should win: Josh Groban 

I had my doubts that Josh Groban was going to be a sufficiently frightening Sweeney. I mean, he’s a crooner and he just seems so nice. But his performance chilled me to the bone. I loved J. Harrison Ghee, but Groban convinced me with a role that went against type, and he nailed it. 

David Gordon
Will win: Ben Platt
Should win: J. Harrison Ghee 

Ben Platt delivers an excellent performance in Parade, and it’s a role that certainly plays to his strengths as a performer. But by the end of the show, his character is a bystander in his own musical — something that you can’t say about J. Harrison Ghee’s arc of self-discovery in Some Like It Hot. 

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role in a Musical 

THE NOMINEES
Annaleigh Ashford, Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
Sara Bareilles, Into the Woods
Victoria Clark, Kimberly Akimbo
Lorna Courtney, & Juliet
Micaela Diamond, Parade 

Zachary Stewart
Will win: Annaleigh Ashford
Should win: Annaleigh Ashford 

This is a tough one, and I could easily see a close race tipping to either Victoria Clark or Micaela Diamond. But Annaleigh Ashford’s interpretation of Mrs. Lovett is the reason we do revivals — so that first-class performers can offer a new perspective on well-known roles. She wins in my book.    

Hayley Levitt
Will win: Victoria Clark
Should win: Annaleigh Ashford 

Victoria Clark has been the woman to beat in this category since Kimberly Akimbo opened off-Broadway in 2021, and I think she’ll ultimately hold her ground. But Annaleigh Ashford is standing on the shoulders of giants and delivering the most perfect Mrs. Lovett that ever was. It’s a performance that will be in the history books, even if she doesn’t take home the Tony.   

Pete Hempstead
Will Win: Annaleigh Ashford
Should Win: Victoria Clark 

Victoria Clark does an astounding job convincing us that she’s a teenager while singing some of the most touching new music on Broadway right now. But I think voters will go for Annaleigh Ashford’s zany and ruthless Mrs. Lovett. She and Groban would make a terrific Tony-winning pair. 

David Gordon
Will Win: Victoria Clark
Should Win: Victoria Clark 

No other actor this season comes close to what Victoria Clark does in Kimberly Akimbo — and the fact that you believe her as a 16-year-old girl is the real miracle of both her show and the performance. She’s in a class all by herself.