Story of the Week: Will a Last-Minute Addition to the Broadway Season Upend the Tony Awards?

This week we learned that Illinoise, currently playing Park Avenue Armory, will transfer to Broadway’s St. James Theatre on April 24, one day before the cutoff for Tony Awards consideration. Story of the Week will consider what impact this show (one of 14 Broadway productions opening in April) will have on the race to win the all-important Best Musical Tony Award. But first, for those of you who missed it at the Armory…

What is Illinoise?

Director-choreographer Justin Peck and playwright Jackie Sibblies Drury have taken Sufjan Stevens’s 2005 album and turned it into a dance musical. It’s about a group of friends who have gathered around a campfire to tell stories, including a very consequential one about Henry and his journey from small-town America to New York City, where he discovers a new love but also learns that taking a big leap away from home has a price.

After a developmental run at Bard College in 2023, the show had its world premiere earlier this year at Chicago Shakespeare Theater before transferring to the Armory in New York. Producers Orin Wolf, John Styles, David Binder, and Executive Producer Nate Koch announced on Tuesday that they would be moving the show to Broadway. I suspected as much when I clocked the proscenium setup, a waste of the Armory’s drill hall, but essential if you’re going to pack up the show and move it to a Broadway theater (as the producers of The Lehman Trilogy did following its Armory run).

Illinoise finishes up at the Armory this weekend and will play its first performance at the St. James Theatre on April 24, skipping the typical month-long preview period (isn’t that what the Armory run is for?) and going straight to opening night to make it in time for for the April 25 Tony consideration cutoff. This is only happening because Monty Python’s Spamalot is closing at the St. James on April 7, much sooner than its producers probably hoped, but allowing Illinoise to fly in under the wire.

It should be noted that Illinoise is produced in association with Seaview, the outfit behind last season’s surprise transfer of The Sign in Sidney Brustein’s Window. This is becoming something of a signature move for them, and as a drama critic I’m all for suspense and surprise.

While I admire the producers’ chutzpah, I have mixed feelings about the actual show. I was impressed with the dancing and musical performances, but the book is a little too obvious in its contrivance for me to hail this as the next great American musical (the show’s initial tagline was “a new kind of musical”). In fact, its branding as a musical rather than a ballet seems entirely aimed at conforming to the narrow parameters of Broadway and its most important award.

It’s too early to tell if this packaging of Illinoise will sway Tony voters, but history gives us some clues as to how things will pan out in June.

Is there precedence for a show like Illinoise winning the Tony for Best Musical?

Its most obvious antecedents are Movin’ Out (which was nominated in 2003 but failed to win the Best Musical award) and Contact (which was nominated in 2000 and won). The shows earned Best Choreography Tonys for Twyla Tharp and Susan Stroman, respectively. This suggests that a dance-forward show like Illinoise has a good shot at earning Peck (already a Tony winner for Carousel) his second trophy. I don’t think I’m going out on a limb, however, in stating that it’s a longshot for the Best Musical Tony.

Tony voters tend not to favor musicals with scores drawn from preexisting popular music if they can help it. The last such musical to win was Moulin Rouge! in 2020, an undeniably strange year: The ceremony was held in September 2021 and considered musicals from the previous season, which was truncated by the Covid shutdown. Moulin Rouge! was nominated against two other jukebox musicals (Jagged Little Pill and Tina), so voters didn’t have a non-jukebox option. Before that, you have to go back to Jersey Boys (2006) to find another example of a jukebox winning Best Musical.  If the only competition Illinoise faced was from Hell’s Kitchen (the Alicia Keys musical) and The Heart of Rock and Roll (the Huey Lewis musical), I would say it has a good shot. But that’s not the case this year.

So what will win?

As I’ve written in my review, I think Water for Elephants is a contender: It features a new score, a strong book, and some truly innovative stage direction. It’s slightly offbeat and has a cast with no name brand stars, which makes it the kind of show (think Kimberly Akimbo and A Strange Loop) that voters like to amplify with a shiny Best Musical trophy. But we still have a whole month (and 7 new musical openings) to go before the picture becomes clearer.

Among the other new musicals that have already opened, The Notebook is perfectly fine and may get a nom, but I have serious doubts it will win. There’s a slimmer hope for Back to the Future, the producers of which will have to be content with being a fan favorite.

I’m afraid that the shows that have already closed or announced their closing (How to Dance in Ohio, Days of Wine and Roses, Harmony, Here Lies Love, and Once Upon a One More Time) are doomed when it comes to Tony. One or two might get a courtesy nod (Days of Wine and Roses and Here Lies Love are the strongest candidates), but nominators and voters alike have year after year proven themselves more interested in honoring shows that are still selling tickets.

Then there are the shows yet to open. I caught Suffs downtown at the Public and barring major revisions, it doesn’t look likely to be crowned Best Musical of 2024. TheaterMania’s New Jersey critic described the score of The Great Gatsby as “an onslaught of bland, placeless melodies,” and that’s also the impression I got while attending a sneak peak in the rehearsal studio. I really loved Hell’s Kitchen when it was off-Broadway, but that show and The Heart of Rock and Roll will have to overcome the perennial prejudice against jukebox musicals (I give the edge to Hell’s Kitchen when it comes to being nominated). I haven’t yet seen The Outsiders or Lempicka, both of which feature new scores and could be competition if they’re good — I’ve been hearing especially strong praise for The Outsiders.

All of this is to say, Illinoise is entering a crowded field with plenty of original scores. That’s a good thing for Broadway! It’s also great that Broadway is hosting a variety of shows, not all of which fit neatly into the traditional formula. I’m glad that Illinoise will be part of the season, but I don’t expect it to have a major impact on the race for the 2024 Best Musical Tony.